News - Ambiguity ‘part and parcel of process’
The clearest timeline on the vexed question of photographic proof of IRA disarmament has been provided by Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams.
He says the British and Irish Governments raised the idea with him in the week before the Leeds Castle talks. Those talks took place between 16-18 September.
Mr Adams says he made it clear at this stage that the demand was unrealisable.
He then says the idea appeared again in a draft of a government paper on 17 November and the government was again told that it could not be delivered.
The ‘ timeline is rather different. Downing Street says photographs have been on the agenda for the past two years, since David Trimble raised them as a possibility.
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 The Irish Foreign Affairs Minister Dermot Ahern seemed to support this when he indicated that the republican rejection of photographic evidence had not been as categoric as Sinn Fein has implied  |
In public, Tony Blair has been at pains not to accuse republicans of “bad faith”.
But questioned about Gerry Adams’s account, one government source told me “these issues have been negotiated on, debated and discussed. They have been at the heart of the negotiations for months”.
The source suggested it was simply “not plausible” to suggest that the government would have included specific suggestions for photographs in its draft statement for General John De Chastelain in the face of such absolute denials.
Irish Foreign Affairs Minister Dermot Ahern seemed to support this when he indicated that the republican rejection of photographic evidence had not been as categoric as Sinn Fein has implied.
Mr Ahern said the governments thought the difficulty was about the publication of the images, not the photographs per se.
‘Object lesson’
The latest IRA statement says photographs were never possible.
This introduces an intriguing twist to the story of how the deal died. Republicans have been happy for the blame to be attached to Ian Paisley’s now notorious “sackcloth and ashes” speech.
The DUP leader delivered this speech to a meeting in Ballymena on 27 November.
Ian Paisley delivered notorious “sackcloth and ashes” speech
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According to the former Sinn Fein publicity director Danny Morrison, this was when “Paisley blew it”.
There is no doubt that demanding the IRA’s humiliation was not exactly an object lesson in conflict resolution.
Perhaps Dr Paisley should attend Relate’s marriage guidance classes for a few political tips.
But he was not the first to talk about the photographs as “humiliation”. That honour goes to Sinn Fein’s Mitchel McLaughlin who accused the DUP of trying to humiliate the IRA over visual decommissioning on the BBC’s Inside Politics programme back on 23 October.
Moreover, if as the IRA says, photos were never possible, would it have made any difference if Ian Paisley had gone on the TV every day in November to reiterate his long held view that the IRA are ” monsters”?
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Would Sinn Fein negotiators really have ruled out something the government wanted at a time when they were happy to seek on, say, demilitarisation? |
All of this is so much history, but does it help us to decide how things might move forward?
If the governments secretly believe photographs are achievable, they may return to trying to push the “post-dated cheque” idea.
Perhaps the date of publication could be stretched so it becomes more a matter of historical interest rather than the cause of painful humiliation.
But if officials really are convinced photographs are off the agenda, will they have to consider either persuading the DUP to settle for less or pursuing a side deal with republicans?
‘Climbing a mountain’
A few thoughts spring to mind. This kind of ambiguity is part and parcel of the way these negotiations work where many issues are being discussed in parallel, not consecutively.
Would Sinn Fein negotiators really have ruled out something the government wanted at a time when they were happy to seek concessions on, say, demilitarisation?
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Ultimately the “back channel” laid the groundwork for the breakthrough in 1994, something from which the governments might take some heart at this time of angry recrimination |
Or would they have left things up in the air until they had chalked off all the items on their shopping list?
Moreover, if the DUP feel misled then they must - in part - blame their own policy of refusing to engage in dialogue with Sinn Fein.
Instead, they are reliant on go-betweens - the British and Irish Governments - who have a clear interest in putting as positive a spin as possible on anything they hear from either side.
Tony Blair talked of “climbing a mountain”. For anyone following this process, memories of “the Mountain Climber” come to mind - the MI6 agent - later named as Michael Oatley - who acted as a “back channel” between the IRA and the government in the 1970s and 1990s.
After the “Mountain Climber” retired, the “back channel” fell apart, with republicans claiming a message saying “the conflict is over” had never been sent by the IRA.
But ultimately the “back channel” laid the groundwork for the breakthrough in 1994, something from which the governments might take some heart at this time of angry recrimination.
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